Trump And Biden Locked In Tight 2024 Presidential Race In Closely Watched 538 Prediction Forecast

Hayden Buckfire

June 11, 2024

As the 2024 presidential election draws nearer, a closely watched presidential forecast has been released, predicting an extremely close result in the hotly contested race.

The Forecast: FiveThirtyEight released its 2024 Presidential Election forecast on Tuesday.

President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, their respective parties’ presumed nominees, are neck and neck. The model gives Biden a 53% chance of winning and Trump a 47% chance. This is down from Biden’s 62% chance of winning in April. Biden has rebounded slightly since Trump’s conviction in New York for felony falsification of business records. This is higher than the odds given by several betting markets.

The model projects Biden winning the popular vote with 47.4% of the vote. Trump is projected to earn 44.8% and Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is projected to earn 7.8%.

FiveThirtyEight lists eight states as the most likely to be the tipping point in the election: Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Florida and Texas. Pennsylvania is the most likely to be the tipping point.

The model aggregates polling data from several sources and weights the polls based on pollster ratings. The forecast also adds fundamental factors, such as the strength of the economy, to adjust its odds. Although Biden has trailed Trump in many polls, the model believes that the president is strong in several fundamental areas.

Unusual Outcomes: The forecast also outlines the probabilities of several “unusual outcomes.”

The model gives Biden a 23% chance of winning the election in a “landslide” and Trump an 11% chance. It also gives Biden a 64% of winning the popular vote and Trump a 36% chance. Democrats have won the popular vote in seven out of the last eight elections since 1992.

FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 52% chance of winning a state in 2024 that he did not win in 2020 (likely North Carolina, Texas or Florida) and Trump a 78% chance (most likely in likely Nevada, Georgia or Arizona).

Previous Forecasts: FiveThirtyEight was founded by statistician Nate Silver, who no longer works for the company. Silver first attracted attention for correctly predicting 49 out of the 50 states in 2008. Silver also correctly predicted the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections, along with the 2022 midterms. The model was incorrect in 2016, predicting Hillary Clinton to defeat Trump—although it was incorrect, it gave Trump a better chance of winning (around 30%) than most other forecasts.

The aggregate is now run by G. Elliott Morris, who replaced Silver in 2023 after previously working for The Economist.

Polling in Peril: Although polling is seemingly more covered now than ever, it has been criticized for several inconsistencies and errors. In the 2020 election, there was a significant 4.6% polling error in favor of Biden. That figure was 4.8% in 2016. Forecasts such as FiveThirtyEight attempt to account for the probability of a significant polling error.

Some have linked the perceived inaccuracy in polling with the idea that some groups, particularly young voters, are less likely to pick up calls from pollsters.

Inaccuracy in polling is not limited to the United States. In Mexico’s presidential election on June 2, pollsters projected Claudia Sheinbaum to win 53% of the vote. Sheinbaum ended up winning 59%.

In India’s election on June 4th, pollsters believed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s party would win in a landslide based on exit polls. Despite predictions that the party would win over 350 seats in the legislature, the coalition won just 293 seats. The iShares MSCI India ETF (BATS:INDA), which tracks the Indian market, fell sharply the following day.

A prominent Indian pollster broke into tears on Indian television shortly afterwards when realizing his prediction’s inaccuracy.

Financial Markets Reaction: Betting markets such as Polymarket give Trump a higher chance of winning. Bettors give Trump a 56% chance of winning and Biden a 34% chance.

The majority of Americans believe that Trump would be better than Biden for the economy, despite encouraging signs such as GDP growth and a nearly 40% appreciation in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) since Biden’s inauguration.

Also Read: Donald Trump Vets Vice Presidential Candidates: GOP’s Top Contenders, Betting Odds

Photo: Shutterstock

Recommended

The Nanotech Startup on a Mission to Save Millions of Lives - Ad

Nvidia Is Pivoting to Solve Big Tech's $1 Trillion Problem - Ad

One Billionaire's Genius Plan to Save the US Dollar From Collapse? - Ad

Popular

$65.6M Equity Offering Led By Good Day Farm Signals M&A Activity - What's The Big Picture?

Executives and investors linked to Good Day Farm, a prominent marijuana multistate operator (MSO), are engaging in a significant financial maneuver with plans to raise $65.6 million.

Tommy Tuberville Sells Several Large Stock Positions, Makes New Buys: Here's What The US Senator Is Betting On Now

Senator Tommy Tuberville disclosed numerous stock trades on Friday June 14. A look at some of the key highlights.

Seven Unknown AI Stocks That Could Dominate the Next Six Years

Seven Unknown AI Stocks That Could Dominate the Next Six Years - Ad

The original "Magnificent Seven" stocks generated 16,800% over the last 20 years. But now a new set of AI stocks is set to take over. Alex Green dubs them "The Next Magnificent Seven." And he's arguing that just $1,000 in each could turn into more than $1 million in less than six years.

Morgan Stanley Picks This Taiwanese Chip Designer As 'Unique Nvidia Proxy'

They anticipate Aspeed will gain additional traction in smart city and factory projects, which should positively influence the company's gross margins.

Will Your iPhone Support New Apple Intelligence Features? Here's What You Need To Know

Apple has announced a suite of AI-powered features for iPhones, calling it Apple Intelligence. However, these features will be limited to select iPhones.

Don't Pay a Dime for Marc Lichtenfeld's Top AI Picks

Don't Pay a Dime for Marc Lichtenfeld's Top AI Picks - Ad

Marc Lichtenfeld's has a brand-new "AI Income Playbook", absolutely FREE! Inside, you'll find Marc's favorite AI dividend stocks... Poised to profit from the fastest-growing technology in history... and pay you bigger and bigger cash dividends along the way! And it's all yours, free of charge.

Trump's Niece Says Insane To Pardon 'Convicted Criminal Who's Trying To Destroy America': 'Absolutely Terrible Idea'

Donald Trump's niece Mary Trump recently slammed the idea of pardoning the ex-president after he was found guilty in the first of his four criminal trials.

Over 1.2 million rechargeable lights are under recall for fire hazards, following one reported death

NEW YORK (AP) — More than 1.2 million rechargeable lights are under recall in the U.S. and Canada following a report of one consumer death.

The Tiny Tech Disrupting the $28.4B Hospital Infection Epidemic

The Tiny Tech Disrupting the $28.4B Hospital Infection Epidemic - Ad

Hospital-acquired infections are a silent killer, but one small company's nanotechnology could put an end to this costly crisis. Their proactive approach is turning heads in the healthcare industry.

Visa's Mark Nelsen wants to make your plastic credit card obsolete

Mark Nelsen, Visa’s global head of consumer payments, sees a world where the plastic card in your wallet becomes increasingly obsolete and the standard 16-digit account number becomes worthless.

Faking an honest woman: Why Russia, China and Big Tech all use faux females to get clicks

WASHINGTON (AP) — When disinformation researcher Wen-Ping Liu looked into China's efforts to influence using fake social media accounts, something unusual stood out about the most successful profiles.

After Conviction, There Could Be More Bad News for Trump

After Conviction, There Could Be More Bad News for Trump - Ad

Former advisor to the CIA, the Pentagon and the White House Jim Rickards just dropped this Trump election bombshell. For the sake of our country...I hope he's wrong. Because if he's right, you need to prepare now.

Biden Vs. Trump Matchup In Key Swing State Of Arizona Shows One Candidate Pulls Ahead With Appreciable Lead, But This Demographic Could Tip The Scale For Either Candidate

The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested, even though neither of the presumptive candidates inspires much confidence among voters.

Norwegian wealth fund to vote against Elon Musk's Tesla pay package

Norway's sovereign wealth fund operated by Norges Bank Investment Management said Saturday it will vote against Elon Musk's hefty CEO compensation package during Tesla's annual meeting on Thursday.

"If I Had To Pour Every Single Penny of My Retirement Into Just ONE STOCK..."

"If I Had To Pour Every Single Penny of My Retirement Into Just ONE STOCK..." - Ad

The former Goldman Sachs VP -- who called everything from Microsoft's 1,100% surge... to the death of the 60/40 portfolio -- is now stepping forward with his most explicit message yet: "Make this ONE STOCK the cornerstone of your portfolio."

Apple's Warranty Updates, iPhone Support Duration, And More: This Week In Apple News

Apple Inc. has been in the spotlight this week with policy changes and revelations. From cracked screen repairs to iPhone support period, here's a round-up of the top stories.

Biden, Trump Should Both Drop Out Of 2024 Election, Leading Pollster Says: 'Country Would Be Better Served'

Leading pollster Nate Silver suggests that Joe Biden should drop out of the 2024 presidential election.

Elon Musk's Crazy New Experiment...REVEALED

Elon Musk's Crazy New Experiment...REVEALED - Ad

On January 28th of 2024... Elon Musk launched a crazy AI experiment involving a real human in California. Elon already invested $100 million of his own money into this AI project... Because he knows the profits here could be ridiculous.

Biden Administration Tightens Vehicle Fuel Mile Limits To Boost Electric Vehicle Market

The Biden administration has stiffened vehicle fuel mile standards as part of its plan to have emissions-free electric vehicles dominate America's automobile sector.

How These 2 Nasdaq-Listed Marijuana Companies Found A Way To Raise $250M Without Tanking Their Stock

This week's Viridian Valuation Tracker investigates the valuation metrics of Canadian cultivation and retail companies with market caps over $100M.

The Silent Killer in Our Hospitals

The Silent Killer in Our Hospitals - Ad

Hospital-acquired infections claim thousands of lives and cost billions annually. One micro-cap company's innovative nanotechnology could put an end to this devastating problem, saving lives and reducing healthcare costs.

Tesla's Chinese Rival NIO Unveils Fourth-Generation Battery Swap Stations With Nvidia Chips, Multi-Brand Support: Report

NIO debuts advanced fourth-gen battery swap stations with NVIDIA chips, enabling autonomous capabilities and faster service, revolutionizing electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China.

Assault on US avocado inspectors in Mexican state led to suspension of inspections

MEXICO CITY (AP) — Two employees of the U.S. Agriculture Department were assaulted and temporarily held by assailants in the Mexican state of Michoacan, prompting the U.S. government , the U.S. ambassador to Mexico said Tuesday.

What's the Big Thing Musk, Bezos and Tim Cook All Have in Common?

What's the Big Thing Musk, Bezos and Tim Cook All Have in Common? - Ad

One of America's most controversial CEOs says, "A new form of money in America is making some people (including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, and 17 of America's 25 wealthiest individuals), rich. It has nothing to do with gold, bitcoin, or anything like that, but it's 100% legal. The problem? Few Americans have a real understanding of how it works.

Edward Snowden Takes A Jab At Elizabeth Warren's Anti-Bitcoin Stance Through The Infamous 'We're All Going To Die' Remark Broadcast On China-Controlled TV

Renowned whistleblower and privacy advocate Edward Snowden poked fun at Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) for her anti-Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) stance by comparing it with the bizarre perspective of the Chinese Communist Party.

XPeng's Mona Sub-Brand Following NIO's Onvo? Launches Debut Model M03 Powered By BYD Batteries

XPeng's Mona sub-brand launches Xpeng M03, equipped with BYD batteries, potentially mirroring NIO's Onvo strategy.

AI Giant To Close the AI "Wealth Window' June 25?

AI Giant To Close the AI "Wealth Window' June 25? - Ad

On June 25, AI Giants will reveal "AI 2.0" to major tech executives, marking a pivotal moment in investing. This next-gen AI promises to transform lives and create a $15.7 trillion global market by 2030. This brief opportunity exists for early investors to capitalize on small breakthrough companies before this wealth window closes.

From Mac To Monolith: Apple Surpasses Microsoft As World's Largest Company By Market Cap

Apple traded above $216 a share on Wednesday morning, up over 4.5% on the day and 10% since its WWDC event on Monday afternoon.

China, EU are open to talks on plans to hike tariffs on Chinese EVs

BANGKOK (AP) — China and the European Union are open to holding talks on the EU’s recent decision to sharply raise tariffs on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles, officials from both sides say.

This Election Shocker Could Be Worse Than Trump's Conviction

This Election Shocker Could Be Worse Than Trump's Conviction - Ad

Central African Republic government suspends Chinese mining company for alleged ties to armed groups

BANGUI, Central African Republic (AP) — The government of the Central African Republic suspended a Chinese mining company’s operations in the country, accusing it of cooperating with armed militias, a government decree said.

Ecuador stops waiving visas for Chinese nationals because of an increase in irregular migration

QUITO, Ecuador (AP) — Ecuador on Tuesday announced the suspension of an agreement with China that had waived visas for Chinese citizens traveling to the South American country, citing a “worrying” increase in irregular migration.

The Mysterious Tale of "America's No. 1 Retirement Stock"

The Mysterious Tale of "America's No. 1 Retirement Stock" - Ad

This factory of 53,000 employees, in Burbank, CA, was camouflaged to look like a sleepy suburb (with the help of artists, set designers, and painters from nearby Hollywood movie studios). The mysterious company behind this disappearing act is now being called "America's No. 1 Retirement Stock".

Wall Street Poised To Extend Record Run On Tech Strength, Tesla Soars, GameStop Rebounds: Analyst Says 'Bull Market Has Legs Left'

Futures trading suggests a mixed start on Thursday, with tech stocks potentially helping to weather profit-taking-induced weakness. Broadcom Inc.

So long plastic air pillows: Amazon shifting to recycled paper filling for packages in North America

Amazon is shifting from the plastic air pillows used for packaging in North America to recycled paper because it's more environmentally sound, and it says paper just works better.

Collect 10%+ Dividends From AI's Explosive Growth?

Collect 10%+ Dividends From AI's Explosive Growth? - Ad

This one-of-a-kind fund is set to pay out a tsunami of profits to shareholders... Giving you the chance to collect 10%+ dividend yields, year after year! In his brand-new "AI Income Playbook," Marc Lichtenfeld gives you the full scoop on this breakthrough fund... Including its name, ticker symbol, and profit potential.

California lawmakers fast-track bill that would require online sellers to verify their identity

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — A California bill that would require marketplaces like eBay and Nextdoor to start collecting bank accounts and tax identification numbers from high-volume sellers who advertise online but collect payments offline was fast-tracked by Democratic lawmakers with committees voting on it Tuesday.

US Supreme Court refuses to take up challenge to Florida's online sports betting compact

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. (AP) — The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday refused to take up a challenge to exclusive rights to handle online sports betting in Florida, dealing a blow to the deal's opponents.

Wall Street Legend on Economy: "If you knew what I know, you'd be terrified too."

Wall Street Legend on Economy: "If you knew what I know, you'd be terrified too." - Ad

Something huge is headed to America's shores -- and it scares the hell out of Wall St. legend Louis Navellier. When it makes landfall, its impact will be more violent and more severe than any financial crisis we've ever seen... "No matter how prepared you think you are, you aren't prepared enough," he warns.

In Wyoming, Bill Gates moves ahead with nuclear project aimed at revolutionizing power generation

Bill Gates and his energy company are starting construction at their Wyoming site for a next-generation nuclear power plant he believes will “revolutionize” how power is generated.

Trending Now