Cryptocurrency bettors sharply raised their odds on Monday that the United States and Iran would strike a nuclear deal in 2025 after President Donald Trump confirmed a ceasefire in the ongoing Middle East conflict.
What Happened: The odds for the betting contract titled “US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?” soared from 34% to 51% in the last 24 hours on the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket.
More than $2 million has already been wagered on the outcome, and the market will vote "Yes" should an official agreement be reached between the U.S. and Iran over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development before 2025 ends.
The rules stipulated that multilateral agreements that include the U.S. and Iran would also qualify for confirmation.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), allows users to buy “Yes” and “No” shares in USDC (CRYPTO: USDC). The shares representing the correct outcome are paid out $1 USDC each upon market resolution.
Note that Polymarket is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory restrictions.
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Why It Matters: The spike in odds comes after Trump announced that Iran and Israel have agreed to a “complete and total ceasefire.” Interestingly, the Iranian Foreign Minister denied any such agreement.
The U.S. entered the conflict by bombing three crucial Iranian nuclear sites, which Trump termed a "spectacular military success." This sent the Polymarket odds of a nuclear deal tumbling.
Iran said last week that it won't engage in nuclear program discussions while under attack from Israel.
Israel attacked Iran earlier this month to eliminate what it said was a nuclear threat from its Middle Eastern adversary. Trump has disagreed with his intelligence director, Tulsi Gabbard, regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, asserting that Iran can build a nuclear weapon.
Photo Courtesy: danielo on Shutterstock.com
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