October 16 Changes the Microchip Game - and Investing

George Gilder-dubbed "America's #1 Futurist"-says while everyone's chasing AI, the real opportunity is in a 4-nanometer tech millions of times more complex. It's not another chip - it replaces them. Now built in Arizona, Gilder says 3 companies tied to this "super-convergence" could soar.

What the end of Federal Reserve independence could mean

CHRISTOPHER RUGABER
August 31, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Donald Trump's attempt to fire a member of the Federal Reserve's governing board has raised alarms among economists and legal experts who see it as the biggest threat to the central bank's independence in decades.

The consequences could impact most Americans' everyday lives: Economists worry that if Trump gets what he wants -- a loyal Fed that sharply cuts short-term interest rates -- the result would likely be higher inflation and, over time, higher borrowing costs for things like mortgages, car loans and business loans.

Trump on Monday sought to fireLisa Cook, the first Black woman appointed to the Fed's seven-member governing board. It was the first time in the Fed's 112-year history that a president has tried to fire a governor.

Trump said he was doing so because of allegations raised by one of his appointees that she has committed mortgage fraud.

Cook has argued in a lawsuit seeking to block her firing that the claims are a pretext for Trump's true goal: Gaining more control over the Fed. A court may decide next week whether to temporarily block Cook's firing while the case makes its way through the legal process.

Cook is accused of claiming two homes as primary residences in July 2021, before she joined the board, which could have led to a lower mortgage rate than if one had been classified as a second home or an investment property. She has suggested in her lawsuit that it may have been a clerical error but hasn't directly responded to the accusations.

Fed independence 'hangs by a thread'

Trump and members of his administration have made no secret about their desire to exert more control over the Fed. Trump has repeatedly demanded that the central bank cut its key rate to as low as 1.3%, from its current level of 4.3%.

Before trying to fire Cook, Trump repeatedly attacked the Fed's chair, Jerome Powell, for not cutting the short-term interest rate and threatened to fire him as well.

"We'll have a majority very shortly, so that'll be good," Trump said Tuesday, a reference to the fact that if he is able to replace Cook his appointees will control the Fed's board by a 4-3 vote.

"The particular case of Governor Cook is not as important as what this latest move shows about the escalation in the assaults on the Fed," said Jon Faust, an economist at Johns Hopkins and former adviser to Powell. "In my view, Fed independence really now hangs by a thread."

Some economists do think the Fed should cut more quickly, though virtually none agree with Trump that it should do so by 3 percentage points. Powell has signaled the Fed is likely to cut by a quarter point in September.

Why economists prefer independent central banks

The Fed wields extensive power over the U.S. economy. By cutting the short-term interest rate it controls -- which it typically does when the economy falters -- the Fed can make borrowing cheaper and encourage more spending, growth, and hiring. When it raises the rate to combat the higher prices that come with inflation, it can weaken the economy and cause job losses.

Most economists have long preferred independent central banks because they can take unpopular steps that elected officials are more likely to avoid. Economic research has shown that nations with independent central banks typically have lower inflation over time.

Elected officials like Trump, however, have much greater incentives to push for lower interest rates, which make it easier for Americans to buy homes and cars and would boost the economy in the short run.

A political Fed could boost inflation

Douglas Elmendorf, an economist at Harvard and former director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, said that Trump's demand for the Fed to cut its key rate by 3 percentage points would overstimulate the economy, lifting consumer demand above what the economy can produce and boosting inflation -- similar to what happened during the pandemic.

"If the Federal Reserve falls under control of the president, then we'll end up with higher inflation in this country probably for years to come," Elmendorf said.

And while the Fed controls a short-term rate, financial markets determine longer-term borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans. And if investors worry that inflation will stay high, they will demand higher yields on government bonds, pushing up borrowing costs across the economy.

In Turkey, for example, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan forced the central bank to keep interest rates low in the early 2020s, even as inflation spiked to 85%. In 2023, Erdogan allowed the central bank more independence, which has helped bring down inflation, but short-term interest rates rose to 50% to fight inflation, and are still 46%.

Other U.S. presidents have badgered the Fed. President Lyndon Johnson harassed then-Fed Chair William McChesney Martin in the mid-1960s to keep rates low as Johnson ramped up government spending on the Vietnam War and antipoverty programs. And Richard Nixon pressured then-Chair Arthur Burns to avoid rate hikes in the run-up to the 1972 election. Both episodes are widely blamed for leading to the stubbornly high inflation of the 1960s and '70s.

Trump has also argued that the Fed should lower its rate to make it easier for the federal government to finance its tremendous $37 trillion debt load. Yet that threatens to distract the Fed from its congressional mandates of keeping inflation and unemployment low.

Independence vs accountability

Presidents do have some influence over the Fed through their ability to appoint members of the board, subject to Senate approval. But the Fed was created to be insulated from short-term political pressures. Fed governors are appointed to staggered, 14-year terms to ensure that no single president can appoint too many.

Jane Manners, a law professor at Fordham University, said there is a reason that Congress decided to create independent agencies like the Fed: They preferred "decisions that are made from a kind of objective, neutral vantage point grounded in expertise rather than decisions are that are wholly subject to political pressure."

Yet some Trump administration officials say they want more democratic accountability at the Fed.

In an interview with USA Today Vice President JD Vance said, "What people who are saying the president has no authority here are effectively saying is that seven economists and lawyers should be able to make an incredibly critical decision for the American people with no democratic input."

And Stephen Miran, a top White House economic adviser, wrote a paper last year advocating for a restructuring of the Fed, including making it much easier for a president to fire governors.

The "overall goal of this design is delivering the economic benefits" of an independent central bank, Miran wrote, "while maintaining a level of accountability that a democratic society must demand." Trump has nominated Miran to the Fed's board to replace Adriana Kugler, who stepped down unexpectedly Aug. 1.

There could be more turmoil ahead

Trump has personally insulted Powell for months, but his administration now appears much more focused on the Fed's broader structure.

The Fed makes its interest rate decisions through a committee that consists of the seven governors, including Powell, as well as the 12 presidents of regional Fed banks in cities such as New York, Kansas City, and Atlanta. Five of those presidents vote on rates at each meeting. The New York Fed president has a permanent vote, while four others vote on a rotating basis.

While the reserve banks' boards choose their presidents, the Fed board in Washington can vote to reject them. All 12 presidents will need to be reappointed and approved by the board in February, which could become more contentious if the board votes down one or more of the 12 presidents.

"The nuclear scenario is ... the reappointment of the reserve bank presidents and interfering with that, (which) would be the signal that things are truly going off the rails," said Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Continue Reading...

Popular

IRS Reportedly Confirms $1,390 Stimulus Checks For Eligible Americans, Rumors of $2,000 August Payout Debunked — Plans Late Summer Rollout (UPDATED)

Millions of Americans may be eligible for a $1,390 stimulus check by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service, as part of a plan aiming to provide financial relief to low and middle-income households.

Congresswoman Files Hundreds Of Stock Trades Late, Including Palantir Stock Up Over 600%

A Congresswoman violated the Stock Act with a disclosure showing hundreds of stock transaction made dating back to March 2024.

The Tesla Shock Nobody Sees Coming - Ad

While headlines scream "Tesla is doomed"...Jeff Brown has uncovered a revolutionary AI breakthrough buried inside Tesla's labs. One that is helping AI escape from our computer screens and manifest itself here in the real world all while creating a 25,000% growth market explosion starting as early as October 23rd.

Cathie Wood's Thursday Bet: ARK Just Bought $31 Million Worth Of Falling Deere Stock, Also Loads Up On Block, Robinhood Shares

Ark Invest, led by Cathie Wood, made significant trades on Thursday — focusing on Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE), Block Inc. (NYSE:XYZ) and Robinhood Markets Inc. (NASDAQ:

Gold Is Being Reintroduced Into the Monetary System - Ad

While the media focuses on political scandals, inflation and coming up with ridiculous acronyms "TACO"... Smart money is tracking a far bigger shift: a gold revaluation is quietly underway. Garrett Goggin, CFA, says this could trigger 100X moves in select miners - and he's identified four with the biggest upside.

Unusual Machines Seen As Key Winner From America's Push To Cut China Out Of Drone Supply Chain

Unusual Machines (UMAC) is positioned to benefit from the US shift away from Chinese parts as demand for drones increases in the next 2 years.

XRP Slips Below $3 But It Will Outperform ETH From Here, Trader Touts

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) is expected to outperform Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) in the upcoming months, according to market commentators bullish on the token’s futur

Missed Chatbots? Don't Miss AI Agents - Ad

Investors who rode C3.ai and SoundHound saw billions created overnight. The next wave? AI Agents. Acting, transacting, rewarding users, not just talking. $3B processed, 88% margins, launch in Q3 2025.

Elliott Management Bets Against S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Nvidia Stock In Second Quarter

Elliott Management places new bets against the market in the second quarter, while taking a new long position in Hewlett Packard Enterprise.

Tens of Millions in Interest Saved. Zero-Party Data Is Next. - Ad

Over $8mm in annual payments revenue. That's the floor. The ceiling? Zero-party data licensed through AI Agents in a $4.4T market. The shift from cookies to consumer-owned data is here.

Benzinga Bulls And Bears: Intel, UNH, Rigetti — And All Eyes On Powell

Benzinga examined the prospects for many investors' favorite stocks over the last week — here's a look at some of our top stories.

From $3B Processed to the Next AI Boom - Ad

This small-cap isn't hype. It's scaled. $3B+ in transactions. 1M+ live payments. Locked-in licensing revenue of $500k per year. Now it's about to roll out consumer AI agents, the real catalyst.

Las Vegas tourism is down. Some blame Trump's tariffs and immigration crackdown

LAS VEGAS (AP) — Tourism in Las Vegas is slumping this summer, with resorts and convention centers reporting fewer visitors compared to last year, especially from abroad, and some officials are blaming the Trump administration’s and policies for the decline.

Is This Elon's Worst Nightmare? - Ad

Elon's empire looks doomed - crashing sales, lost tax credits, and media backlash. But behind the scenes, Tesla is about to unleash a breakthrough Forbes calls a "multi-trillion-dollar opportunity." It's not the end - it's the start of a 25,000% AI comeback.

Trump Admin Moves To 'Prevent Benefits' Of Some Student Borrowers Under Bush Jr-Era Loan Forgiveness Program, Advocates Sound Warning

Trump admin aims to limit PSLF benefits for workers at organizations deemed to have substantial illegal purpose by disqualifying employers for 10 years under a vague standard, sparking concerns about politicization and uncertainty for public service workers.

The $4.4 Trillion Shift Few See Coming - Ad

McKinsey says AI could add $4.4T annually. Microsoft, Salesforce, and early startups are racing ahead. But one small-cap with $3B processed and 88% margins is ready to launch its consumer agents.

Hijacked satellites and orbiting space weapons: In the 21st century, space is the new battlefield

WASHINGTON (AP) — As Russia held its this year, hackers backing the Kremlin hijacked an orbiting satellite that provides television service to Ukraine.

Appeals court throws out massive civil fraud penalty against President Donald Trump

NEW YORK (AP) — An appeals court has thrown out the massive civil fraud penalty against , ruling Thursday in New York state’s lawsuit accusing him of exaggerating his wealth.

Will Your Savings Survive the September 30th Debt Ceiling Crisis? - Ad

On Sept 30th, the U.S. runs out of "extraordinary measures" to avoid default. Insiders are moving into crisis-proof assets-while everyday Americans risk losing big. The FREE Mar-A-Lago Accord reveals where they're hiding wealth, how the Fed's response could crush the dollar, and 3 urgent moves to make now.

$420 Million Wiped Out In 20 Minutes — What The Inflation Shock Reveals About Bitcoin, Ethereum

A sharp upside surprise in U.S. producer price inflation triggered a $420 million wipeout in crypto markets on Wednesday, exposing lingering vulnerabilities in market leverage during macroeconomic data shocks.

Bitget Posts $750B Monthly Volume In First Half 2025 As Institutional Trading Surges

Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget on Thursday recorded an average of $750 billion in monthly trading volume during the first half of 2025, with derivatives making up close to 90% of activity, according to CoinDesk research.

How 433 Investors Unlocked 400X Return Potential - Ad

VCs back startups for outsized gains. Regular investors wait. But rule changes fixed that. Take Revolut. In 2016, 433 people averaged a $2,370 stake. Today? It's worth $1M+, up 89,900%. No wonder 10K+ people and the VCs behind Uber and eBay took the chance on Pacaso's $1.3T market disruption.

Baidu's AI Cloud, Robotaxi Push Gain Speed Even As Ad Business Slows: Analyst

Baidu faces challenges in shifting tech landscape. Analyst maintains Buy with lowered price forecast, citing ad weakness and AI investment.

Trump Ends De-Minimis Exemptions To All Countries: How This Will Impact Your Online Shopping

President Donald Trump's executive order, which ends de minimis exemptions, is set to take effect on Friday. This will effectively close the duty-free shipping loophole that allowed small commercial packages worth $800 or less to enter the United States without being subject to taxes or tariffs.

October 16 Changes the Microchip Game - and Investing - Ad

George Gilder-dubbed "America's #1 Futurist"-says while everyone's chasing AI, the real opportunity is in a 4-nanometer tech millions of times more complex. It's not another chip - it replaces them. Now built in Arizona, Gilder says 3 companies tied to this "super-convergence" could soar.

Ukraine's $150 Billion Commitment To Buy US Weapons Could Hand RTX, Lockheed And Northrop Billions

Ukraine is reportedly promising to buy $100 billion worth of American weapons, financed by Europe, in return for a security guarantee by the U.S.

Palantir CEO Alex Karp Dumps $63 Million In Stock As PLTR Surges 111% This Year

Palantir CEO Alex Karp sold $62.7 million in stock amid rising valuation concerns and insider selling pressure, even as the stock remains up 397% year-over-year.

The Tesla Shock Nobody Sees Coming - Ad

While headlines scream "Tesla is doomed"...Jeff Brown has uncovered a revolutionary AI breakthrough buried inside Tesla's labs. One that is helping AI escape from our computer screens and manifest itself here in the real world all while creating a 25,000% growth market explosion starting as early as October 23rd.

Judge dismisses 2 counts against US Rep. Cuellar of Texas, moves bribery trial to next year

HOUSTON (AP) — A judge on Thursday granted a request by federal prosecutors to dismiss two of the 14 counts against U.S. Rep. of Texas and his wife, as part of a . The judge also ordered that their trial, which had been set for September, be rescheduled for next year.

Gold Is Being Reintroduced Into the Monetary System - Ad

While the media focuses on political scandals, inflation and coming up with ridiculous acronyms "TACO"... Smart money is tracking a far bigger shift: a gold revaluation is quietly underway. Garrett Goggin, CFA, says this could trigger 100X moves in select miners - and he's identified four with the biggest upside.

Ukrainian Drone Sparks Blazes Just Miles From Putin's Mysterious $1.5B Black Sea Palace

A Ukrainian drone strike has ignited widespread forest fires in close proximity to Russian President Vladimir Putin's opulent Black Sea residence, colloquially known as "Putin's Palace".

Missed Chatbots? Don't Miss AI Agents - Ad

Investors who rode C3.ai and SoundHound saw billions created overnight. The next wave? AI Agents. Acting, transacting, rewarding users, not just talking. $3B processed, 88% margins, launch in Q3 2025.

Ambarella Stock Is Trading Higher Friday: What's Going On?

Ambarella stock is trading higher Friday after the company reported better-than-expected second quarter earnings per share and sales and guided third quarter sales above estimates on Thursday after the market closed.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright technicaltrading.org
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service