The Last Time Gold Flashed This Warning Sign, the Market Dropped 80%

Both President Trump and Elon Musk are warning about something that could send the market down 50%, real estate down 40% and savings accounts down 30%.

Trump was poised to inherit a strong economy. Then things got rocky and he added to the uncertainty

JOSH BOAK
December 20, 2024

WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. (AP) -- The smooth economy that Donald Trump was poised to inherit suddenly looks a bit rockier -- with critics saying the president-elect is contributing to the uncertainty.

The Dow Jones stock index essentially ended Thursday flat after having posted 10 days of losses. The Federal Reserve now sees inflation as staying stubbornly elevated as it has become cautious about further interest rate cuts planned for next year.

On Wednesday, Trump blew up a bipartisan budget deal, which means the government could shut down after midnight Saturday. He then promoted a deal reached with Republicans on Thursday that Democratic lawmakers and President Joe Biden see as unacceptable. It failed to get the two-thirds threshold needed for House passage. This comes on top of a spate of tariff threats by Trump that the Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday would raise prices and hurt growth without raising enough revenues to cover the rest of his planned tax cuts.

As Trump prepares for a second term in the White House, his actions to undo a deal and replace it in under 24 hours test the proposition that markets -- a favored Trump barometer of success -- will accept his mix of uncertainty and reality TV drama.

But from the vantage of Trump world, the economy was already a mess. That's because of inflation, which is currently 2.7%, and public dissatisfaction with Biden.

"On day one, President Trump will get to work to launch the largest deregulatory agenda in history, cut taxes, and expedite permitting for drilling and fracking to lower energy costs and inflation for all Americans," said Karoline Leavitt, the transition spokeswoman and incoming press secretary.

Turbulence already starting

The past few days are a reminder that the economic growth in the Republican's first term was often accompanied by turmoil. It remains to be seen if voters already exhausted by inflation are ready for another round of blame games and uncertainty that the past few days have foreshadowed.

Trump vowed on social media Wednesday to "fight 'till the end" unless Democrats agreed to lift the debt ceiling as a condition for the short-term funding to keep the federal government open. He and his billionaire friend and adviser Elon Musk also promised to fund challengers in the 2026 primary elections to any Republican lawmaker who opposed the president-elect.

His social media postings came after Musk blasted the bipartisan package reached by House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., to fund the government through March 14. When the government last had a partial shutdown for five weeks starting at the end of 2018, the CBO estimated it cut economic growth by $3 billion, a small but symbolic sum.

By Thursday, Trump was claiming on social media that a new deal reached among Republicans was a "SUCCESS" because it would push the debt ceiling out until January 30, 2027. He insisted that Democrats "do what is best for Country," but the White House and leading Democratic lawmakers came out against the proposal.

Democrats were also quick to seize on the seeming Republican dysfunction, with Rep. Suzan DelBene, D-Wash., saying, "Trump's made a lot of promises, but he's also going to be accountable for the impact he's having on families."

"I guess Elon Musk is making the decisions now, because Republicans in Congress are incapable of making decisions on their own," DelBene said in an interview. "They just wait for someone to tell them what to do."

Trump won the election, but public still wary

Trump's ability to project strength and assure voters that he would reduce inflation helped him win November's election. Stocks initially climbed on the prospect of tax and regulatory cuts, but Trump still faces a skeptical public and appears to be starting his presidency from a more delicate position than Biden did four years ago.

Most U.S. adults -- 54% -- have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to the latest survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. The survey found that small majorities have slight to no confidence in his ability to manage the White House or government spending. By contrast, Biden began his presidency with an approval rating above 60% only to see it steadily decline as inflation worsened.

In a sense, Trump has to preserve the momentum of an economy still recovering from pandemic-era distortions while going through a series of tough policy choices. First, there is the need to increase the government's legal borrowing authority that he insists be part of any short-term funding bill in order to avoid a shutdown. He will also push to renew his 2017 tax cuts that are set to expire after next year. On top of that, there is a budget deficit that has become less sustainable with higher interest rates.

"The U.S. economy is in very good shape -- it has a strong underlying growth trend," said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an economist and president of the American Action Forum, a center-right think tank. "All of the risks are policy risks. They're risks that the Fed didn't get it right, risks that come with the clock -- we've got to do the debt ceiling, we've got to fund the government."

In a speech this month at the Brookings Institution, Biden took stock of the roughly 3% economic growth and the inflation rate easing since its 2022 spike, saying Trump would come into office with a solid economy. But he also warned that the policies of Trump allies in the form of tariffs and deportations could unleash an "economic disaster."

The president never translated his investments in infrastructure, renewable energy and new factories into political momentum. But he said "it's going to be politically costly and economically unsound for the next president to disrupt or cut" those programs.

Trump is also inheriting a higher national debt from Biden that could limit the benefits and scope of his planned tax cuts. When he was last president in 2020, the government was spending $345 billion annually to service the debt. That cost now exceeds $1 trillion. On Thursday, the president-elect said on social media that the federal government "will cut Hundreds of Billions of Dollars in spending next year" in an effort to fund his tax cuts and limit deficits.

The Fed sees uncertainty ahead

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told reporters at a Wednesday news conference that some members of the central bank's rate-setting committee started to incorporate the possible effects of Trump's policies into their economic forecasts.

But Powell stressed that there is a lack of clarity about what Trump would do. It's unknown whether he would deliver on tariff threats against Canada, Mexico, China and Europe. Nor is there much official guidance on how Trump would fund tax cuts that could add $4.6 trillion to deficits over a decade.

"Some did identify policy uncertainty as one of the reasons for their writing down more uncertainty around inflation," Powell said. "The point about uncertainty is it's kind of common sense thinking that when the path is uncertain you go a little bit slower."

Powell added for emphasis about what happens with uncertainty: "It's not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room full of furniture. You just slow down."

Continue Reading...

Popular

Trump administration halts $1 billion program that keeps aging affordable housing livable

The Trump administration is halting a $1 billion program that helps preserve affordable housing, threatening projects that keep tens of thousands of units livable for low-income Americans, according to a document obtained by The Associated Press.

Palantir Cofounder Peter Thiel Might Write A Book About Ancient Prophecies, The Antichrist, And Armageddon - He Thinks We're Ignoring The Real Threat

Billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel is exploring a book on ancient prophecies, the Antichrist, and Armageddon, warning that society is ignoring the threat of a one-world government—a concern he believes demands urgent attention.

Forget Nvidia - This Odd Tariff Play Is Now Going Viral - Ad

As President Trump slaps China with new tariffs, the Fed is boxed in--and gold is skyrocketing just like it did during Trump's first term. JPMorgan just grabbed $4 Billion in gold bars... should you? Discover a "Tariff Assistance Loophole" to move funds from your IRA & 401(k) into gold--tax-free!

Trump vs Musk? Federal Workers Unconvinced He'll Take Action: 'If They Don't Cut, Elon will, Comments Show Who's Really In Charge'

President Donald Trump has reportedly limited the authority of his billionaire advisor, Elon Musk, to dismiss federal employees. This development has stirred skepticism among the workforce and political circles.

Universities are facing big cuts to research funding. At Duke, it's a time for 'damage control'

DURHAM, N.C. (AP) — Facing the potential loss of hundreds of millions of dollars in federal funding, Duke University is preparing for the worst.

A Uranium Boom Is Coming--Are You Positioned? - Ad

The last uranium cycle created massive winners. This new bull market is just beginning, and one tiny uranium stock could be a major beneficiary.

Trump's 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports go into effect

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump officially increased to 25% on Wednesday, promising that the taxes would help create U.S. factory jobs at a time when his seesawing tariff threats are and raising fears of an economic slowdown.

Trump Says Economy Faces A 'Period Of Transition': Is A Recession Ahead?

Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, called Trump "an agent of chaos and confusion" on CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe."

Warren Buffett's Investing Partner's Shocking Final Move - Ad

Before he passed away, Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's investing partner of 60 years, was rumored to have quietly made one final investment... Up until now, it has remained hidden from the public. It's potentially the smartest, most profitable, and most under-valued AI investment you can make today.

'Horrific Report': Economists Warn Consumer Confidence Collapse Signals Economic Trouble

U of Michigan consumer confidence survey shows rapid decrease amid high inflation expectations, economists warn of bad omen for US economy.

What's Going On With Kohl's Stock Wednesday?

Kohl's stock may be moving on continued weakness after the company reported fourth-quarter financial results and issued guidance on Tuesday.

Washington Won't Save You--but This 4-Step Plan Might - Ad

America's economy is unraveling--soaring costs, skyrocketing debt, and Wall Street insiders dumping stocks. This isn't a recession--it's an economic breakdown. Stocks could crash 50%, real estate 40%, and inflation will eat your savings. But history shows: the biggest crashes create the biggest fortunes--if you act now!

Raoul Pal, Tom Lee See Bitcoin Capturing Major Share Of $500 Trillion Global Store Of Value Market

Macro strategist Raoul Pal and Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee have analyzed Bitcoin's (CRYPTO: BTC) role in the global store value market worth

The DOGE Shock: Nine Stocks to Buy - Ad

They say that DOGE's real agenda could shock the entire stock market in the coming days - sending a handful of widely unknown stocks soaring. And they've compiled the definitive investment playbook for anyone who wants the opportunity to capitalize.

JPMorgan Questions Viability of US Crypto Reserve, Cites Issues With Smaller Tokens

A senior JPMorgan Chase & Co (NASDAQ:JPM) strategist voiced doubts about the feasibility of establishing a U.S.

Trump DOT chief rejects inclusion of environmental justice factors in infrastructure decisions

Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy on Monday rescinded Biden-era memos that he said called on state agencies to factor a “social justice and environmental agenda” into infrastructure project decisions.

America's Uranium Crisis = A Massive Opportunity - Ad

Ninety percent of America's uranium is imported. With the US scrambling to rebuild domestic supply, Canadian uranium companies are in prime position. One small-cap stock could be set to benefit.

Trump's Crypto Reserve Plan Sparks Controversy, Schiff Questions XRP Inclusion, Polymarket CEO Invited To White House: This Week In Crypto

The crypto world was shaken as Trump's announcement of a U.S. cryptocurrency reserve sparked backlash from tech allies, criticism from economist Peter Schiff, and calls for a Congressional investigation into potential insider trading and market manipulation.

Critics warn staff cuts at federal agencies overseeing US dams could put public safety at risk

COULEE DAM, Wash. (AP) — Trump administration workforce cuts at federal agencies overseeing U.S. dams are threatening their ability to provide reliable electricity, supply farmers with water and protect communities from floods, employees and industry experts warn.

DOGE Could Send 6 AI Stocks Through the Roof - Ad

Expect an announcement from Elon any day now ...Thousands of government jobs could be replaced ...By a new form of AI. This one move could save American taxpayers billions of dollars. And we believe six specific stocks could soar as a result.

Tesla Out, Ford In: City Of Baltimore Goes 'In A Different Direction' Reversing EV Deal From 2024

Tesla is losing an EV city fleet deal in Baltimore to Ford. A look at what happened and how politics may have factored into the decision.

Sam Bankman-Fried Says 'When Rubber Meets The Road' On Crypto's Fate Under Trump, Slams Biden's Policies

Disgraced cryptocurrency mogul Sam Bankman-Fried weighed in on the future of digital assets under President Donald Trump’s administration, according to an interview from his prison released Thursday.

A Radical New AI Development - Ad

According to this billion-dollar fund manager, AI is way more advanced than most people realize... Thanks to a radical new development, folks who aren't positioned correctly are about to get blindsided.

Mineralys Therapeutics Unveils Positive Data From Two Trials For Hypertension Drug Candidate

Mineralys Therapeutics' lorundrostat met key Phase 3 and Phase 2 trial endpoints for hypertension, showing significant blood pressure reductions and a strong safety profile.

Greece says ambitious Mediterranean power cable project is on track despite setbacks

ATHENS, Greece (AP) — The future of an ambitious electricity cable linking the power grids of , and Israel by the end of the decade is on track despite a series of setbacks, Greece’s Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis said Thursday.

Elon Musk's Memphis Secret... Revealed - Ad

What's happening inside this nondescript building in South Memphis is so incredible... That Elon's competitors have been flying drones over this place... Trying to get any kind of intel on his project. Tech legend Jeff Brown went there to investigate and what he found is truly a matter of national security.

Oracle Stock Stumbles Into Q3 Earnings: Will Buyers Step In As It Nears Oversold Territory

Oracle Corp reports Q3 earnings on Monday. Stock currently in strongly bearish trend, but oversold conditions may present long-term opportunity.

Trump to Unlock 15-Figure Fortune for America (May 3rd)? - Ad

This map looks ordinary--but according to insider Jim Rickards, it reveals a hidden government asset so massive . Trump may soon unlock it--learn how to position yourself before it's too late!

Ontario Zaps US States With Higher Electricity Prices In Retaliation To Trump Tariffs

Bloomberg reports that Ontario on Monday has implemented a 25% electricity price hike on exports to several states. Premier Doug Ford emphasized that the move targets President Trump's policies rather than American consumers.

Honduras holds primaries as voter frustration simmers over security and the economy

TEGUCIGALPA, Honduras (AP) — Voters in Honduras will select candidates from the three main parties Sunday to compete in November’s general election for the presidency in a country that remains deeply polarized, but skeptical of leaders from the left and right who have failed to deliver on improving security and the economy.

OLED Investors Saw 4,090% -- Is MicroLED Next? - Ad

The MicroLED market is projected to surpass $21 billion by 2027at a staggering 81.5% CAGR. And one pioneering company has developed a cost-effective production process that could enable mass commercialization of MicroLED displays..

Nebius Announces 300 MW Data Center In New Jersey, Adds AI Capacity In Kansas City And Iceland

Nebius Group NV (NBIS) announced construction of a new NJ data center with up to 300 MW capacity, following previous guidance of 100 MW by 2025.

Japan's economy grew at a 2.2% annual rate in Oct-Dec, as consumers held back on spending

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s has cut its estimate for its economic growth in the last quarter of the year to a 2.2% annual pace from 2.8% as consumer spending hit demand.

Buffett's $29B Oil Bet--Here's How to Earn 22% Yields Monthly - Ad

Buffett is loading up on oil stocks--10% of his portfolio is now in energy. But while he earns modest dividends, we've found an ETF yielding 22% annually with monthly payouts! Get the full details now--before the next oil surge!

How Trump justifies his tariffs - from budget balancing to protecting 'the soul' of America

WASHINGTON (AP) — To , “tariff” is more than “the most beautiful word in the dictionary,” something he says often.

Tesla Stock Pares Early Losses, Rises 6.4% After Key Signal

A significant trading signal occurred for Tesla stock, as it demonstrated a Power Inflow at $222.68, after which TSLA rose up to 6.4%.

"I Thought We Had More Time..." - Ad

I've spent 44 years on Wall Street. I'm deep inside the upper echelon of technology and finance... managing billions of dollars for some of the wealthiest people in this country. I've seen what comes next for AI. And frankly... It terrifies me.

CVS Weight Management Program Yields 15% Average Weight Loss, 26% Cost Saving Among Participants

CVS Weight Management program members achieved 15% average weight loss, with 92% satisfaction and 26% lower GLP-1 medication costs for participating clients.

Trending Now

Information, charts or examples are for illustration and educational purposes only and not for individualized investment management This message contains commercial elements, such as advertising. We only send these offers to those who have opted in to our newsletter. Past performance is not indicative of future results. For these reasons we strongly suggest trading in a DEMO/Simulated account. The information provided by us is for educational and informational purposes only. We make no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended and have not determined if the statements and opinions of the advertiser are accurate, correct or truthful. If you use, act upon or make decisions in reliance on information contained or any external source linked within it, you do so at your own peril and agree to hold us, our officers, directors, shareholders, affiliates and agents without fault.

Copyright technicaltrading.org
Privacy Policy | Terms of Service