Wall Street Legend Now Calling Exact Day Next Market Crash Will Start?

Perhaps no one on or off Wall Street has more accurate in calling the market turns of the past 7 years. From the bear markets of 2018 and 2022... to the roaring bull runs of 2021, 2023, and 2024. And now, Marc Chaikin is predicting the exact month (even the exact day!) the next crash is most likely to start--don't miss this huge and important new call.

Asset allocation when you have enough

Amy Arnott of Morningstar
January 28, 2025

I recently chatted with a retired couple who were looking for a second opinion about their portfolio's asset allocation. The key question: Is 65% in stocks too high for someone in their situation? Here, I'll walk through some ideas about how to think through these issues.

First, cover the basics

Jot down what your spending looks like in a typical month, including costs for housing, food, medical care, insurance, clothing, charitable donations, and taxes. Then you can add in discretionary spending, such as travel, entertainment, major purchases, and the like.

If you're working with a financial advisor, he or she should be able to use this data to estimate your lifetime spending needs. If you're managing your own assets, you can do a rough calculation by reverse engineering the 4% rule: Multiply your planned annual spending by the inverse of the withdrawal percentage; for example, someone who plans to spend $50,000 per year would need a portfolio of at least $1.4 million ($50,000 times 28.6, which is the inverse of 3.5%).

Next, it's time to think about asset allocation for these core assets.

Scenario 1: Legacy focus

If you want to prioritize leaving assets (bequests) to charity or family members, you might be comfortable with a higher equity allocation, which should allow for continued growth while the assets are still in your portfolio.

Scenario 2: Capital preservation focus

Investors who aren't as focused on asset growth for eventual bequests to charity or family members might be more comfortable prioritizing safety instead, and can tilt their "extra" portfolio towards bonds.

Of course, these two scenarios are just a starting point. A couple in this situation might end up deciding on a portfolio allocation somewhere in between, or decide to carve out additional buckets, such as a separate bucket for charitable donations during their lifetime or another bucket for "fun money" to enjoy the fruits of a lifetime of work and saving.

Other considerations

Even for investors comfortable with a higher equity allocation, it's prudent to reduce exposure to individual stocks if they're significantly overvalued or consume a large percentage of the portfolio (5% or more is a rough guideline).

It's also worth considering whether each spouse has the same level of risk tolerance and comfort with investing. Think about how a surviving spouse might handle remaining assets and make sure the portfolio's asset mix is something both members of the couple are comfortable with for the long term.

Conclusion

At the end of the day, there's no "right" answer to creating an asset-allocation mix. It all comes down to an individual's level of risk tolerance, portfolio size, and anticipated spending needs. But investors who have enough assets to cover their planned spending during retirement--and then some--have more flexibility to create a customized asset mix that reflects their goals and priorities.

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